Kashmir Times
November 30, 2007
Will they meet the test?
by I. A. Rehman
THE circumstances of Nawaz Sharif's return mark a radical shift in the country's political situation. In one sense the possibilities of an early transition to democratisation have increased. In another sense the task of saving Pakistan for democracy may have become harder. Success in guiding the ship of state through the narrow straits ahead will depend on qualities of statesmanship two persons - Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif - can display.
Nawaz Sharif has returned home - in triumph - only 10 weeks after he had been publicly humiliated and bundled off to Saudi Arabia. What exactly made the regime eat its words to the effect that the prime minister General Musharraf had overthrown in 1999 could not be allowed to return before the expiry of the period specified in the Islamabad-Riyadh deal, and certainly not before the general election?
The regime's growing insecurity, accentuated further by the PML-Q's insipid performance and Benazir Bhutto's attempts to close the breach with the civil society could have been a strong factor. A stronger factor could have been Saudi Arabia's decision to play a decisive role in extricating Pakistan from the post-Nov 3 mess. In September Saudi Arabia sent its intelligence chief to push Nawaz Sharif into a Jeddah-bound plane. Last week the king took matters in his own hands and made sure that Nawaz Sharif (and brother Shahbaz Sharif) could land in Pakistan before the date of filing nominations for the general election expired and that his security needs were not left to chance or Islamabad's incompetent factotums.
This is not the time to remind the regime of its rhetoric about its rejection of foreign intervention in Pakistan's affairs, although intervention is intervention, whether it comes from the east or the west. What is relevant at the moment is whether the 'enlightened moderation of liberals' is to be replaced with 'accommodation with conservative dogmatists'. It is possible that Saudi Arabia was unhappy with the former slogan and capitalised on a chance for its replacement with the latter. If this is indeed the case, not only the strategy of the fight against militants may undergo a change, the state may again begin to veer towards a theocratic order.
That aside, Nawaz Sharif's homecoming is a thoroughly-needed shot in the opposition's flagging arm. The PML-N will rise, literally from ashes, to formidable strength. If the party remains firm on its pro-democracy pledges, opposition to the regime will become unbeatable. In that sense the prospects of beginning the trek to normal, civilised, democratic rule may have improved.
By the same token consternation in the ruling camp should increase. The tajdars of Punjab, the regime's principal source of strength, have greater reason to fear for their political future now than they had when Benazir Bhutto descended on a far away Karachi. They cannot ignore the fact that while Benazir Bhutto had only one reluctant friend (Musharraf) and the whole establishment was against her; Nawaz Sharif has no problem with the establishment except for one person.
Unless they can be herded back into the PML-N fold the tottering knights of the Q League will be under pressure to seek safety in much greater rigging of the polls than they might have hitherto contemplated. That will make the battle for democracy harder.
The hazards on the path to democratisation could multiply manifold if the regime succeeded in splitting the opposition, especially if it could get PML-N and PPP pitted against one another. The factors that underline the urgency of these two parties' acting together are many and pretty obvious. In the short run, the question of joining or boycotting the farce proposed in the name of election is still valid, the filing of nomination papers notwithstanding.
The arguments for boycotting the general election if all actions taken on Nov 3 are not taken back are irrefutable. Freedom of canvassing, freedom to held rallies, freedom of expression for the media - all these are essential to the holding of democratically acceptable elections. Without an independent judiciary the Election Commission itself cannot be properly constituted. The judges seconded to the commission in the present situation are unlikely to win public confidence. Besides, an independent judiciary is needed to resolve post-polling disputes. These problems become severer if one takes into account the fact that the constitution requirement of having an independent caretaker regime has not been met.
However, an effective boycott of the election will be impossible without a complete unity among the opposition parties and that will be possible only if PML-N and PPP decide to work together. An understanding between them alone will stay the waverers from joining the electoral charade and close the escape route for opportunists who may be looking for any excuse to renege on their democratic-looking pledges.
But, if for any reason whatsoever either PPP or PML-N finds it impossible to stay away from the election, the two parties will better serve the country as well as themselves by developing an understanding on the best arrangement for achieving the vitally needed regime change. This understanding will enable them to attract all other political parties and groups to form an all-party front against autocracy.
However, it is time that politicians, especially in the opposition, started taking a longer view of Pakistan's crisis, of the requisites of a return to representative rule. The country's multiple ailments will not disappear with a change at the top alone. Harder than that will be the task of persuading the military to vacate the large space in the civilian domain it has encroached upon.
A reordering of the economy so as to offer some relief to the hard pressed poor and the crafting of a sober response to the religions militants also are tasks neither Benazir Bhutto nor Nawaz Sharif can achieve singly or in tandem with the general. It may not be possible to guarantee success in these areas even if the two leaders team up but the possibility of success will be the greatest in that event. And in any case the people should be prepared for a long haul as none of the objectives of transition to democracy will be realised quickly.
There should be no doubt about the terrible consequences of the opposition parties' failure to work with unity, especially over the next few weeks. Pakistan will be condemned to another spell of authoritarian rule, the threat from militants will become more serious, the region will remain destabilised, the people will suffer for lack of an executive capable of managing the economy in the interest of the people and a judiciary capable of protecting the rights of the people, and the nation's hopes of a turnaround aroused by civil society initiatives will be dashed to the ground.
The foremost question thus is: Will Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif rise to the decision?
