[The below article appeared under a different title in Dawn, 6 February 2008]
The Struggle for Pakistan’s Future
by Hassan N Gardezi
The Deep Trouble
During the year 2007, Pakistan witnessed a wave of disappearances, dismantling of the higher judiciary, brutal suppression of the lawyers’ movement; crack down on the media and journalists, arrests and house detentions, and finally the imposition of a state of emergency on November 3. On top of it all the year saw a sharp escalation of suicide bombings that rose to 56 incidents from 8 in the previous year, killing 618 people and wounding 1657, according to government’s own statistics. If none of these atrocities brought home the message, the assassination of Benazir Bhutto on December 27 and its aftermath sent out a loud and clear signal that Pakistan as a nation state is in deep trouble. Although one of the many crises Pakistan has seen in its short history, the depth and scale of this latest eruption is such that it will not admit of any solution short of a radical remaking of the country’s political culture and institutions.
But before anything can be done to restore the long term stability and security of Pakistan, there has to be a political consensus on what needs to be done immediately to bring a modicum of normalcy in the present political situation in order to move forward towards establishing a legitimate representative government that can deal with the monumental tasks ahead. There are two options in this respect being already debated and pursued in the country.
Elections
One of these options or line of action is to go ahead with the elections under the present setup, originally slated for January 8 and postponed to February 18 after the assassination of Benazir Bhutto. Interestingly, the path to this option was opened as a result of a US sponsored plan to prop up Gen. Musharraf’s regime, besieged by protests in the summer of 2007, by giving it a democratic façade. Under this plan or “power sharing deal,” brokered by US diplomats, Musharraf cleared the way for Benazir Bhutto to return to Pakistan and seek re-election to the position of prime minister, and in return she agreed that her party (PPP) will not oppose Musharraf’s election to president’s office for another 5 year term. On October 6 Musharraf was elected president of Pakistan for a second term by the outgoing parliament as the opposition parties boycotted the vote and Benazir Bhutto returned to Pakistan on October 18 to launch her election campaign to become prime minister.
It is true that after the state of emergency was imposed on Nov. 3, and Benazir Bhutto was placed under house arrest between Nov. 9 and 13, she began to urge President Musharraf to resign. But the main focus of her party has remained on winning the elections under the present setup. Those who still speak for Pakistan Peoples Party believe that despite a strong possibility of rigging, they will win the elections and any change in the present setup presided over by Musharraf can wait until their electoral victory is accomplished. Beyond this calculation, they neither seem to have the patience nor willingness to articulate in any detail their strategic or programmatic plan of action to be pursued after the election is over. The only two major items of PPP agenda spelled out clearly by Ms Bhutto in her short lived electoral campaign after her return to Pakistan comprised of a stronger cooperation with the American “war on Terror” and the ending of extremist religious violence at home. (Whether the two objectives can be perused successfully at the same time is another mater).
Nevertheless, it is quite likely that barring a major rigging effort which cannot be out ruled, PPP can easily win a majority in the national parliament if elections are held as scheduled. The tragic death of Benazir Bhutto has created an emotional upsurge of popular electoral support for her party. Even large segments of party supporters who for various reasons had previously become disenchanted with PPP now seem to be ready to vote for it, no matter by whom and how the party is runs.
The other mainstream opposition party, the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz), PMLN, has also taken up the electoral option but it is vocally critical of the set up under which these elections are going to be held. Its leader Nawaz Sharif who was finally allowed to return to Pakistan from his exile on November 25 wants the installation of an interim government without Musharraf to establish suitable conditions for fair and free elections. While PPP leaders want elections to be held immediately, Nawaz Sharif will accept even some delay to ensure the fairness and transparency of the electoral process.
With his own nomination papers rejected by the present election commission, Nawaz Sharif seems to have assumed a position of philosophical detachment over who comes to power as a result of next elections, so long as Musharraf is out of the picture. As for the electoral strength of PMLN, it has considerable following in Punjab. It had a majority of parliamentary seats in the Nawaz Sharif government that was overthrown in 1999 by the Musharraf coup. Many leaders of the PMLN who defected to form the “king’s party” under Musharraf, the Pakistan Muslim League (Qaid-e-Azam), PMLQ, have or intend to return to their original party.
The Movement
The second option or line of action that is open as a starting point for a durable solution of Pakistan’s problems is more of an extension of the ongoing lawyers’ movement which erupted in March 2007 when Gen. Musharraf for the first time forced the Supreme Court chief justice, Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry, out of office. Among the politicians Imran Khan, the head of the Tahrek-e-Insaf party is an outspoken advocate of this line of action. It is based on the premise that Pakistan cannot move forward unless the present crooked setup, contrived by Musharraf’s authoritarian regime, is quashed and rule of law restored. In specific terms this means the realization of following minimal conditions:
1. Ex-army chief Gen. Musharraf, steps down from the office of president.
2. All the pre-November 3 judges of the Supreme Court and the high courts are reinstated.
3. The 1973 Constitution is restored, without the amendments introduced by military regimes.
4. The present caretaker governments, which are simply extensions of the PMLQ, are replaced by caretaker governments acceptable to all parties, and charged with holding elections within a fixed period of time.
5. A new election commission acceptable to all political parties is appointed.
6. All political prisoners, including judges and lawyers under house arrest, are released.
Rushing into the elections orchestrated by Musharraf under pressure, before the above preconditions for a fair vote are met, is deemed problematic on several grounds. Firstly, it confers legitimacy on Musharraf’s hold on the presidency, which he acquired through legally devious means by firing the Chief Justice of Pakistan and his panel of judges who were about to rule on the legality of his election to the office. To agree to participate in elections under him also sanitises his wrongful actions taken since the imposition of emergency rule on Nov. 3.
Secondly, the present set up contrived by Musharraf opens the door to massive rigging of elections, and this is known to all politicians. To put it in the words of Imran Khan from a recent speech he made in New York, the February 18 elections will witness “the mother of all riggings.” There are credible reasons for these fears. The partisan character of the caretaker governments and the election commission is one of them. Then there are the local level governments, products of Musharraf’s “devolution of power” scheme. Their nazims (administrators), especially in the populous Punjab, are dominated by PMLQ. They can be very effective instruments of rigging with their influence peddling, intimidation and even resort to kidnappings of political workers and candidates. Another factor that is already casting a shadow over the fairness of proposed elections is the number of cases registered by police against people implicated in widespread riots that broke out in the aftermath of Benazir Bhutto’s assassination. The PPP sources have claimed that multiple cases have been registered against half a million of their supporters and political workers in the Sindh province alone. In the absence of a functional and independent judiciary there seems to be no remedy to this predicament.
Thirdly, if against all odds the elections turn out to be fair enough to produce a government by PPP with a parliamentary majority of its own, or in coalition with PMLN, this in itself will scarcely be a victory for democracy. Much will depend on whether this government accepts the status quo and settles down to work in a power sharing arrangement with Musharraf as president for the next five years, or asserts its independence and opts for some real change. The latter at least will involve reinstatement of the pre Nov. 3 judiciary, challenge to the legality of Musharraf’s hold on presidency, and rescinding of the 17th constitutional amendment which empowers the president to dissolve the parliament and dismiss the prime minister.
Unforeseen can always happen in politics, but given its past history and present makeup PPP, or for that matter PMLN , is not the party that once in power can be expected to venture too far from the status quo. The leadership of the party remains firmly with feudal elements, its most capable and principled p leader, Aitezaz Ahsan, has withdrawn from the electoral context and the party has no articulated political and socio-economic agenda.
Tasks Ahead
Pakistan today is going through a crisis that is unprecedented in its intensity and complexity. It will be foolish to spread the illusion that a hastily arranged election, without a functional and independent judiciary, and a compromised constitution can put the country back to the road to democracy.
Musharraf regime is already tottering under increasing opposition within Pakistan and pressure from abroad. He is making pathetically desperate attempts to save his legally questionable presidency by trying to make last minute deals with leaders of the PPP and PMLN at home while pleading for support in Western capitals. There is no need to give his presidency a democratic gloss by any means. The only negotiation with him should be limited to address the strategy of his exit.
What is important is a transition to an elected government based firmly on the institutional structure of democratic governance – a constitution with entrenched human and civil rights, an independent judiciary, and a free press and broadcast media. Thanks to the lawyers’ movement, Pakistan has never been closer to achieving these essentials of democratic rule. What is more challenging and difficult is to undertake the tasks ahead which can help sustain democratic rule, and make Pakistan a peaceful and economically just society.
The significance of these tasks for Pakistan’s future and how they can be accomplished is another subject for exploration which can be left to another time. But some of the most critical ones, on which much has already been said elsewhere, need to be pointed out here as a reminder while the struggle for the country’s future is on.
1. The praetorian role of the Pakistan army has to be ended.
2. The hegemony of United States over Pakistan’s internal politics and foreign policy has to be ended.
3. While freedom of belief and worship should be guarantied, the Pakistani state should be taken out of playing with the politics of religion.
4. The World Bank/ IMF credo of economic growth has to be replaced by emphasis on economic justice.
5. The autonomy of the federating units of Pakistan must be respected.
