Dawn
December 30, 2007
Will the future change?
by S. Akbar Zaidi
THE assassination of Ms Benazir Bhutto may have changed Pakistan’s future in many different and significant ways. This horrendous act deserves the widest outrage and condemnation for the brutal murder that it was, and the public response has been spontaneous and not unexpected, and is unlikely to subside for some time to come.
The loss of Ms Bhutto as one of the most important, vocal and courageous political figures on the Pakistani, and indeed global, scene will be irreplaceable. Whatever one thought of Ms Bhutto’s politics, and there were many who did not agree with it, there were few who denied her the recognition which she deservedly received. She will be missed sorely for her public presence and for her pivotal role in Pakistani politics over the last three decades.
This is not yet the time or place to analyse Ms Bhutto’s contribution to Pakistani politics, for which perhaps a more dispassionate distance from the events of Dec 27 is essential. The eulogies have only just begun to pour in and will continue to do so for many months to come. More detailed biographical and political analysis will also soon follow, and a spate of articles and books, many with reminiscences others with analyses, are probably already being written. Because she was such a major figure on the political and democratic map of Pakistan, her assassination will continue to influence the politics of the country for some time to come. Yet, her departure also brings about the possibilities for many new beginnings as well.
Although Ms Bhutto is gone, the country, at least for the moment, stumbles along, hurt, bleeding, yet coming to terms with this new reality. Similarly, the political processes — and not just the elections — as always, continue, with all other political parties and actors responding to this great loss, yet continuing to be in the realm of the political. Whether elections are to be held now or later, political parties will continue to do what they are expected to. However, Ms Bhutto’s assassination and her absence will probably be the largest single influence on the electoral and political process in Pakistan in the immediate future. And it is this influence which allows both continuity and departure, and possibilities as well.
The first political response to Ms Bhutto’s assassination has been the immediate decision by Mr Nawaz Sharif to boycott the elections, a position which he failed to convince Ms Bhutto of some weeks ago. Mr Sharif has got what he wanted and now stands apart from the electoral process. The second equally significant decision immediately following Ms Bhutto’s death has been the unexplainable announcement by the caretaker government that elections will be held ‘on schedule’, in eleven days — until ‘a final decision’ is taken after consulting the major parties. With Ms Bhutto expected to have won perhaps a quarter or third of the seats or votes, this decision is not just strange but insensitive.
Politics in Pakistan, and that of political parties in particular, has always revolved around the personality of the leader of that party. Despite the presence of a central working committee and other inner forums within parties where advice may be sought, political decisions are taken by a handful of the leadership, and it is always the individual leader who symbolises the political stand of the party. Often leaders take decisions which they believe to be correct, regardless of the advice they receive. Given this pivotal role of the leader of the party, the decision by the government to not seriously consider a postponement is particularly significant, knowing that whoever replaces her will never be able to fill her shoes in such a short time, if ever at all.
With these two important political decisions already taken, the third one, and perhaps the most important one, will be decided after the soyem of Ms Bhutto on Sunday. Who replaces Ms Bhutto as the leader of her party is of great significance, both in the immediate term and particularly in the somewhat longer term. Although it is not possible to speculate about what happens to the Pakistan People’s Party in the longer term just at the moment, just as it is increasingly difficult to speculate about Pakistan and about its politics, the selection of a new leader and his role over the next few weeks and months will have a significant bearing on which way the political process, and the country, go.
Whoever the new leader is he will not have either the political presence or persona, nor perhaps the political understanding, which Ms Bhutto represented. The new leader will perhaps be more responsive to advice from trusted and more experienced party members from the inner sanctum, and in fact, for some time at least, we may see some form of collective leadership. Whoever this leadership is, it will not be able to replace what Ms Bhutto brought to the party or to politics in Pakistan. Yet, as political actors who have an interest and stake in the politics of the country, they will have to take political decisions. The most important and immediate decision the new leader and the collective leadership will have to take is whether to contest or boycott the elections.
For reasons that have been debated at length in the press, Ms Bhutto, perhaps for both personal and political reasons, had decided not to boycott the sham elections of President Musharraf, a decision which would have legitimised and endorsed his hollow political structure and arrangement. Once again, this critical decision is open for debate and allows for the possibility for a reversal of the earlier mistake.
With Mr Nawaz Sharif having taken a unilateral and independent stand in response to the complete collapse of President Musharraf’s political settlement, the new leaders of the Pakistan People’s Party must show greater political acumen and follow suit. Following the assassination and removal of Ms Benazir Bhutto, the civilian and military facade and arrangement since 1999 has now completely collapsed.
There is no way possible for political parties to agree to play the old game any longer. Although the private and personal grief, and the political sentiment, is still charged and will continue to be so for some time, this possibility of a different future, a substantial and marked transformation and departure from the past, is very real. Ms Bhutto’s assassination is not, as some have begun to state, ‘the end of democracy’.
Joint collective action by the two largest political parties and other actors, at this political juncture, might be that one push which was lacking to rid Pakistan of a military-dominated political arrangement imposed on the people of Pakistan since 1999. In many instances, in a settled, well-structured political system, assassinations of prominent political leaders result in a continuity with new individuals filling in. In a collapsing system and structure such as Pakistan’s, and especially due to the influences of the democratic and political processes under way since early 2007, a continuity is no longer possible.
Whatever reasons Ms Bhutto may have had for playing the electoral game according to a set of given rules, those rules are no longer valid. While the private and personal responses to the assassination of Ms Bhutto will be many, on the political front there is only one, and there is no longer any alternative. The time for collaboration and compromise is over.
